Phase 2 and a half

The Governor is supposed to talk later today about the COVID numbers and the status of the "phased reopneing."  Currently, Phase 2 is scheduled to end this coming Friday, but we have every reason to believe that will be extended again. That seems to be making some folks in Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes cranky but the numbers are what they are and they say it isn't time yet. 

Of course, this isn't really an argument about numbers.  Instead it is about power.  Specifically it is about the power of individuals who, by virtue of their economic status, are less at risk to the virus than the people they want to force back into dangerous jobs for their benefit.  

In Jefferson, some council members said they understand waiting to gauge the fallout from school reopenings and the Laura evacuations, but they were united in believing Jefferson is in good enough shape to reopen. In St. Tammany, one council member voted against the request.

Several Jefferson council members own small businesses or come from families that do, and local business groups spoke of impending financial disaster for bars, restaurants and other small businesses and their owners and employees.

Much of this moot if congress had implemented a national policy of aid to small business and direct payments to workers to protect everyone during the health crisis.  Instead we've chosen this bloody struggle in the chaos. The only outcome under that circumstance can be more precarious working conditions for everyone. And the only way to send everyone out when it isn't safe to be there is if we pretend that it is. And it turns out, for some people, that's pretty easy to do now. 

(Tulane epidemiologist Susan) Hassig said many pushing for a faster opening often haven’t had first-hand experience with severe cases of the disease, which exact their terrible toll away from public view in the intensive care units of hospitals.

Those who died during the 1918 influenza epidemic, on the other hand, “if they weren’t in your apartment, they were in the row house next to you, and you saw the body out on the curb.”

“It’s not fake; it’s real,” she said. “The challenge is that people see relatively small numbers in terms of fatalities as a proportion of infections … but when you start thinking about opening up and allowing virus to spread, that impact grows really quickly.”

And, of course, this fit is occurring at the exact moment that schools and universities are running their own experiments with classroom instruction for the fall. Hassig says in this article that that alone equates to about a "reopening" for about 20 percent of the population. We're in Phase 2 and half right now.  Maybe let's not take this moment to try and rush on through to Phase 3.

All in this together

Not being an especially sharp science talking guy, I can't say I've tested this hypothesis that the virus is unable to cross Parish lines without special permission. But I have to say it does not sound convincing. 

Backed by local business organizations, the Jefferson Parish Council is expected Tuesday to ask Gov. John Bel Edwards to loosen coronavirus restrictions by region or parish, saying Jefferson should be allowed to move forward if it meets the criteria and not be held back simply because other areas do not.

The Council resolution, crafted by District 2 Councilman Deano Bonano, argues that many businesses are on "the brink of bankruptcy" and that the parish's hospital capacity and infection rate are sufficient to move "forward into Phase 3 of the recovery while maintaining all of the required safety protocols."

Oh wait a minute. I did not realize it might be different if we tell the virus that the businesses are going bankrupt.  Maybe that will keep it out. Anyway, Jefferson Parish doesn't even meet the Phase 3 criteria now so it's hard to know what the rush is. 

Jefferson Parish has recorded 16,461 known coronavirus cases since the disease arrived in March, more than any other parish in Louisiana. And while daily case counts have fallen sharply from the earliest days of the pandemic, according to data from the state Department of Health both Jefferson and the broader New Orleans region still have a high enough count of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people — known as the infection rate — to mandate Phase 2 restrictions.

Probably they just want to yell about it.  And, hey, who can blame them for that?  Living like this really does suck.  I also miss being able to just hang out somewhere. I don't even need the bars to open if I could go to the store or the coffee shop and just be in public feeling comfortable for a few minutes.  Last night there was a three alarm fire down the street from our house.  It was almost a comfort to stand outside and talk with a group of concerned neighbors gathering to watch. Then we remembered we had to put on our masks or keep back. 

This is miserable. Nobody wants to be living this life right now but we understand that we have to. It would certainly have helped matters if Congress had acted to ensure our lives were a little less precarious while we were making these sacrifices for one another. But they didn't. And now we're all at the mercy of the local tin-pot sociopaths ready for us to sacrifice more on their behalf. 

On Monday, (JP District 2 Councilman Deano) Bonano argued that hospital bed and protective equipment shortages that drove the stay-at-home order this spring are no longer present in Jefferson Parish, and that he doesn't believe the parish even had a second spike in coronavirus cases.

“Jefferson Parish’s numbers have remained well below what would be close to taxing our medical system and running out of space,” he said.

The reason to impose restrictions is is to stop the spread of the virus. It is not simply to make sure there are enough hospital beds for people who get it.  How dismal is that?  Bonano sound like he is fine to let God sort em out as long as there is enough room for the sorting. There's a better way to do this and it starts with congressional action and... well... we're waiting. 

But in the meantime, let's not be stupid. Please.