Running out the clock

The first thing to understand about this "bi-partisan" stimulus proposal is that it is, in fact, a total cave on the part of the Democratic leadership.   

The top Democratic congressional leaders on Tuesday embraced a $908 billion coronavirus relief framework -- a massive concession meant to prod President Trump and Senate Republicans into accepting a compromise as covid cases spike and the economic recovery shows signs of faltering ahead of the holiday.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that “we believe the bipartisan framework introduced by Senators yesterday should be used as the basis for immediate bipartisan, bicameral negotiations.”

The "framework" would amount to about a third of what the Democrats had been asking for which also was not going to be enough. And, of course, as a "starting point" it is only going to be watered down further from here. McConnell has already rejected this first offer, in fact. 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has pushed for a smaller deal and it appears unlikely he is poised to support the bipartisan agreement.

He circulated a proposal on Tuesday that offered minimal aid to the jobless, in a sharp break with the bipartisan group that could represent an obstacle to a final deal.McConnell has also delivered an ultimatum, requiring any legislation to immunize businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits. 

Nothing is written into a bill yet so the details of the "framework" are still fluid, as they say.  But according to this article we know it aims at a $300 per week boost to unemployment benefits matching the now expired emergency stop gap written by Trump after the original $600 provided by the CARES act ran out.  Today we learned another 712,000 new jobless claims were filed this week.  A lot of headlines highlight that the number is "fewer than expected" or down from last week, but as Atrios points out, "Every week since this began has been higher than the peak week of the Great Recession," so what are we really looking at here?  An historically large number of people need help and will continue to need it. $300 is not really help. 

The starting point framework includes $160 billion for state and local governments.  The notion of any state and local aid at all has previously been a non-starter for Republicans so expect that figure to come down.  Our friend, Senator John Kennedy was seen "trashing it" on TV today, in fact.  In any case, the starting figure is not enough.  According to, still incomplete estimates from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities  state budgets are expected to take a hit of at least $194 billion.  This Brookings study figures that state and local revenues will take a hit of well over half a trillion dollars in the next few years.  Obviously we aren't going to get where we need to go from this "starting point." 

Certainly this $160 billion (but likely much less) sop isn't worth trading this for. 

The measure, spearheaded by Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, and Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, would restore lapsed federal jobless benefits, providing $300 a week for 18 weeks; would include $288 billion for struggling small businesses, restaurants and theaters and $160 billion for fiscally strapped cities and states; and would create a temporary liability shield for businesses operating amid the pandemic.

"Temporary" or not, there can be no compromise where the US government allows your boss to simply order you to your death with no repercussions. 

Anyway, the punchline to all of this is now that the vaccines are almost ready, the political pressure to do more emergency stimulus will quickly reduce to zero. So Joe Biden can say all he wants about how whatever comes out of the lame duck session is a "first step," come the new Congress, the focus will be on the quickest way to just vaccinate everyone and tell them to get a job. Nevermind that the jobs are half gone and what's left out there is gig-a-fied beyond all recognition. That's the "new normal" all of this has been leading toward all along.  McConnell has run the clock out all year and the bosses have won the pandemic. They're even going to be shielded from future liability. The rest of us will just have to get used to it.

Here comes the benefits cliff

Full speed ahead into the abyss, I guess.

Hundreds of thousands of Louisianans who’ve lost their jobs during the coronavirus pandemic have continued to receive sizable weekly checks, thanks to a federal $600-a-week boost to the state’s unemployment benefits.

But with the extra aid set to vanish in two and a half weeks — dropping the state’s maximum unemployment insurance benefit from $847 per week to just $247 — scores of workers are bracing for a huge blow to their income and stressing over how to pay bills.

Not sure about that "sizable" bit.  Maybe not the best way to describe the precarity to which these hundreds of thousands of workers in Louisiana have been subjected.  $600 a month with a hard expiration date doesn't sound like anyone's getting any special favors. They got mad at me for pointing this out yesterday but the way we talk about these policies in the media matters.  Working class people are being utterly abused by a saftety-net-in-name-only that is specifically designed to humiliate and intimidate them. It's important to avoid the pretense that they should be grateful for that.  Last month, the Advocate referred to the expanded benefits as "generous." We'll be sure and send Mitch McConnell a thank you card. 

Maybe we are picking at nits. But, as yesterday's story goes on to point out, Republicans in Washington, who are dragging their feet about extending benefits, are explicitly arguing that millions of laid off Americans have it too good right now. 

So far, there’s been little progress in Washington D.C. on a new aid package. Serious talks have yet to begin between the Democrat-controlled House and GOP Senate over possible proposals, and it’s unclear whether Republicans would support another round of expanded unemployment benefits.

Many Republicans have criticized the federal supplement, saying it is too generous and has incentivized many workers to stay home instead of returning to their jobs, since many lower-wage Americans have ended up making more each week than they earned while working full time.

We still don't even know if Congress will approve a new round of one-time relief checks like the ones sent out to many Americans a few months ago.  Back in May, when Sen. John Kennedy was asked about a second stimulus, he told us "People in Hell want ice water."  Well, John, we are in Hell. I mean, people in the Arctic want ice water right now.  And still, whatever relief Americans get looks right now like it will be less than the already insufficient previous round of checks.

Anyway if Republicans really thought the problem with this tenuous allowance is that it is too generous to compete with what people were making at work, then maybe it's time to talk about why more than 30 million Americans currently claiming benefits haven't been afforded a living wage. Of course they don't care about that. It's central to the right wing project that we maintain a large pool of unemployed or underemployed workers who are insecure enough to work for practically nothing when needed. If there's no one holding enough power to force the US Congress toward a different policy then this is fine for them. They are there to protect the bosses. Right now the bosses are winning. There's almost no incentive for anyone on their side to budge.

Up until this this week, I had all but convinced myself maybe there would be just enough fear of the fall elections to get a last minute extension of benefits through.  But I'm starting to see how a second stimulus check might provide just enough political cover to let the UI benefits expire anyway. Forcing people to "just get used to" worsening conditions is too high on the Republican list of priorities. They're not going to just let an opportunity like this pass without a fight.