Just blew right through

Laura is already out of the headlines most everywhere but Louisiana.  Trump came down and signed some autographs or something and now they're all on to other things. 

Here are some numbers.  Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to be without water or power for a month at least. Tens of thousands of evacuees are staying in hotels all over Louisiana and Texas. Remember that evacuees in similar circumstances after Katrina had to fight more than once to keep their hotel vouchers before being kicked out with no place to go.  This is going to be a long tough road ahead for many people. 

A massive chlorine gas fire that erupted near Lake Charles has yet to be fully measured. Information about possible environmental damage from similar chemical infrastructure in the area is slow to come in.

The lack of urgency around monitoring is problematic, said Kimberly Terrell, Tulane Environmental Law Clinic's director of community outreach, because industrial facilities hit by Laura's winds could be leaking or emitting more air pollution than normal. 

"Monitoring air pollution is more important than ever," she said. "You would hope that the state would mobilize every resource available to provide information about what’s in the air in this region."

Indeed, since Thursday, more than 50 pollution events linked to Laura in Louisiana have been reported to the U.S. Coast Guard's National Response Center, including the possible release of toxic vinyl chloride and dichloroethane from the Westlake Chemicals facility, just across Contraband Bayou from the BioLab facility, and the release of an unknown quantity of natural gas from a storage tank at the Cameron LNG Inc. facility in Cameron Parish.

Confidence in EPA to discharge its duty under Trump is at an all time low. It will make it all the more difficult to assess the harm done by Laura. 

That is also true in general as attention moves quickly away.  Only a few years ago an event like Laura might be the biggest ongoing news story of the year.  In terms of the current national news cycle, it's just another catastrophe to throw on the pile. 

That doesn't make it any less devastating for the people who lived in its path.  If you are looking for a way to help, the City of New Orleans is compiling a list of ways you can do that here.

Worst person of 2020?

Seems like a lofty title. The competition would be stiff. Pros only, please. Probably if you are a mayor of something, you've already got a leg up on it.  But it would be hard to beat Josh Guillory at this point. 

Instead of hurricane damage, Lafayette has faced the "serious, local security threat" of protesters, according to Lafayette Parish Mayor-President Josh Guillory's administration.

Cydra Wingerter, Guillory's chief administrative officer, sent a Saturday email to those involved in disaster response, urging them to "take a pause on any action to establish shelters at this time."

Hundreds of thousands of people without electricity or water right now.  But... "security threat." Brilliant. 

Chemical fire

 Yikes

A large chemical fire has sent a dangerous cloud over Lake Charles, hours after the eye of Hurricane Laura passed directly over the city.

Gov. John Bel Edwards says the fire was burning Thursday morning just outside the city, and he’s advising storm survivors to shelter in place.

Edwards tweeted that people “in the Westlake/Moss Bluff/Sulphur area” should close their windows and doors and turn off their air conditioning units.

The National Hurricane Center says Laura remains a hurricane, sustaining top winds of 75 mph more than 170 miles after landfall.

Sounds comfy

 

All's well that ends well if you own a well

There were some 1400 oil wells in the path of Hurricane Laura's storm surge.  Plus multiple chemical pipelines. Plus the offshore rigs, plus the LNG terminals. What happens if all that stuff gets blowed up?  Well, there is precedent.

Hurricane Katrina struck a similar trove of coastal oil and gas infrastructure in 2005. A Category 3 storm, Katrina made landfall with less force than Laura but managed to damage an estimated 100 drilling platforms, 400 pipelines and caused about 540 spills in Louisiana waters. Added up, the spills likely released roughly 11 million gallons – the same amount as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska.

Fifteen years later, no environmental damage assessments have been completed and no companies were fined.

Wind vs Rain vs Surge

 The 15th anniversary of Katrina is two days from now.  Many folks who learned a lot about how disaster insurance works (or doesn't) at that time, will tell you why this might be important. 

Gov. John Bel Edwards on Thursday morning said early reports show wind did the most damage from Hurricane Laura, with storm surge falling short of projections, but the governor warned the hurricane did “extensive” damage that is ongoing as it continues to move toward Shreveport.

The governor said the National Guard had not yet been able to take helicopters to survey damage and that a “full assessment” was not yet available as of Thursday morning.

It's early but that is potentially good news.  This says also that the surge may have been only half as high as the predicted "unsurvivable" worst case scenario.  

Of course there are other hazards.

Chemical leak south side of I-10 west Lake area west of Lake Charles. 911 is aware they are overwhelmed. @NWSLakeCharles #lawx pic.twitter.com/ogXwMmhVcj

— Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski) August 27, 2020

Hold on to your butts

 Absolute terror.

Officials implored those who hadn’t left to do so in a final Wednesday morning briefing before the storm’s arrival, warning of unprecedented storm surge and punishing winds similar to and possibly even more damaging than those of 2005’s Rita.

"We expect catastrophic events from this storm,” said Lake Charles Mayor Nic Hunter. “Let me say: I hope I’m wrong. I hope this is not a Rita- like scenario. But the expectation and forecast is for this to be a catastrophic event."

The 7 PM advisory says Laura has 150 mph winds and can push a storm surge of 20 ft. It is potentially the "most powerful storm to ever hit Louisiana"  The chemical infrastructure situated in its path is worth billions of dollars and accounts for a large share of national fuel production.  Even more critically, though, it could make for a massive environmental disaster in the wake of a storm like this. 

Coming onshore within hours.  

 

Unsurvivable

 That sounds bad. I don't like it. 

Southwest Louisiana was bracing for a catastrophic Category 4 Hurricane Laura that was expected to lay waste to large swaths of the region, bringing unheard-of levels of storm surge for south Louisiana of as much as 20 feet.

Gov. John Bel Edwards and forecasters implored residents of the area to flee as the storm prepared to make landfall. Officials said it will bring “unsurvivable” storm surge and wind gusts of 170 mph that was expected to leave most of Cameron Parish underwater.

This is over 200 miles away from New Orleans but the wind this afternoon is already shaking things up a good deal more than anything associated with Marco did over the weekend.  There have only been three storms in recorded history to strike Louisiana as Cat 4 hurricanes.  Katrina, Rita, and Andrew had all grown to Cat 5 strength at certain points but were not, technically, packing that punch when they made landfall.  Still, all were historically damaging.  

There are a lot of vulnerable people in the path of this one. The President just spent $44 million in FEMA funds on an inadequate stop gap fix for unemployment insurance.  Surely no one will complain.

When I am elected mayor, we will make S&WB build one more pump

 We gotta round it off. This always bugs me. 

The New Orleans Sewerage and Water Board said Saturday afternoon that 98 of its 99 drainage pumps, four turbines and five elctro-motive diesel generators are working ahead of Tropical Storm Marco, whose forecast track shifted east earlier in the day and put the city square in its path.

Who will be the first baby actually born in a crossfire hurricane?

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore has been dispatched to Touro Infirmary to keep us informed.  Too early to know the child's name. But the celebrity couple that births them is known as Laurco.

Short thread: Latest on TS #Marco & TS #Laura, both of which could bring impacts to portions of SE LA and MS. The more significant impacts are currently expected to be associated with TS Laura.
Coastal flooding🌊, heavy rain 🌧️, and strong winds 🌬️ all possible. (1/4) pic.twitter.com/CpthZUXlMP

— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) August 22, 2020

We know a lot of people are making the "cross the streams" joke right now. But I just want to point something out about that. Computer, enhance.

Uncle, 2020...UNCLE! pic.twitter.com/yCdbwixAk4

— Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. (@SteveWAFB) August 22, 2020

Probably not a coincidence at all that they come together right over the state capitol building. We all know that is where Gozer lives.

Meanwhile, this is all very stressful for us in New Orleans, which is a bit of surprise. One would think the hunkerdown alarm going off would come almost as a relief given the state of things. The thing about  hurricane doom as opposed to *gestures at all of the other doom in progress now* is that at least this is the familiar doom. We know how to do this kind.

But, all the same, we were hoping to have electricity this week so we could watch all the horror/comedy to be presented at the Republican National Convention. We need some sort of eye-opener after being put to sleep by the Democrats' telethon or whatever that was. If it's any consolation maybe the mayor will come on TV and fire off a few jokes before the lights go out.

One thing is certain. This time there will be no need to impose a curfew. There's nowhere for anyone to go.