We always skip ahead to Thermidor

I know that to most cable news audiences it feels like there's a lot of chaos and stuff going on right now. But, in reality, US politics has been and remains a reliably steady edifice.  The ruling establishment can't be displaced by social upheaval because it is so thoroughly disconnected from it.  The population at large can suffer tremendously but most of them don't matter in the calculus. 

There can be unrest in the streets all summer. People can lose their jobs, lose their homes, lose their lives to an uncontrolled disease, even. But, while those are the problems of the people, generally they are not the problems of the electorate. The electorate is worried about the blowback from all that other stuff. And that is what our politics responds to. Which is why, in times of crisis, the message that goes up the flagpole isn't so much that we need to address the crisis itself but instead that we need to keep the reaction to it under control.  

So, in a Presidential election conducted under these circumstances, the candidates compete to "win the week" by best reflecting their targeted voters' fear of the people. Which is why this week we have one candidate accusing the other of being a "radical left anarchist" who will not keep you "safe."

In formally accepting the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday, Trump laid out a central attack line for his campaign: accusing the Democratic Party of standing with "anarchists, agitators, rioters, looters and flag burners." 

Trump claimed that a victory Nov. 3 by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would usher in an era of lawlessness. "No one will be safe in Biden's America," the president said.

While the other candidate is buying ads to reassure his targeted voters that, no no that is not it at all, in fact he hates the radical agitators as much as the other guy.  Moreso, maybe.  

Mr. Biden has repeatedly condemned instances in which protests for racial justice have burst into violence, accusing Mr. Trump of stoking divisions and laying blame for any chaos on the current occupant of the White House.

But the ad — part of a $45 million one-week television and digital purchase that is by far the campaign’s largest to date — is the first time that Mr. Biden has put this pushback on issues of crime and public safety into a major paid advertising program.

“I want to make it absolutely clear,” Mr. Biden says as images flash of burned-out cars and buildings and a confrontation with the police. “Rioting is not protesting. Looting is not protesting. And those who do it should be prosecuted.”

It's been a rough summer for a lot of reasons. But the fact that a lot of people ran out into the streets to be punched and gassed by cops is destined to be remembered only as.. that summer when people got punched and gassed by cops.  Because the next step of connecting that upheaval to a political movement for change is impossible in this system.  It can only be incorporated in terms of the reaction against it. We skip right past the revolution every time.

Just get used to it

Months and months of failing to stop the virus, making half-committed efforts to stop it while also undermining those half-committed efforts, refusing to support people through the hardships imposed by the half-committed efforts... eventually the only conclusion to draw is "Just get used to it" was the plan all along.  

Well, we're doing that now. 

Earlier this week, Tulane University professor Carola Wenk got the email she had been dreading: Less than two weeks after the university's ambitious return to in-person instruction, a student in her undergraduate math class had tested positive for coronavirus.

"I just felt heartbroken," Wenk said. "I was just like, "Oh my God, that student caught it now because they came to Tulane."

Such emails have become more common as coronavirus cases have begun to tick up at Tulane, in what some say is the predictable result of the school's decision to reopen campus this fall to 13,600 students, including 4,000 who live in dorms. The majority of students are attending classes in person.

Since July 27, Tulane has reported 155 positive results from its aggressive screening program, which included 14,521 tests. That represents a 1.06 percent testing positivity rate on campus, officials said in a recent update on the school's website.

"Some say" it was a predictable result of calling everyone back to campus. But the university isn't going to take responsibility for that.  They're making a bold decision, after all.  It's a dangerous new world out there. Folks are just gonna have to get used to it. 

Besides, if anything goes wrong, we can always just blame the victims. 

The school will also continue to crack down on students who host gatherings of more than 15 people at a time, currently prohibited on campus.

"We have had to suspend some for violations and will continue to do so if necessary," Strecker said, adding that the "vast majority" of students abide by the rules.

University administrators ought to have a pretty good idea of how students are going to behave.  Setting them up as scapegoats through rules they know are going to be broken shouldn't absolve anyone of the blame for the decision to create the dangerous situation in the first place. 

But the people making the decisions have to weigh the perceived special value of an exclusive private educational experience against these inconvenient little threats to public health so you can see the dilemma.

What did we say about the first of the month?

 Was worried something like this was up. 

A woman facing eviction from her Central City apartment complex torched the building Monday night, killing a dog and displacing 26 of her neighbors, authorities alleged.

Police in Hunstville, Texas, on Tuesday captured Jazlynn Major, 25, on a warrant accusing her of 26 counts of aggravated arson following the three-alarm blaze at the Amies Paradise apartments in the 1600 block of Washington Avenue.

This is not a joke. Things are bad and are getting worse.  There are office holders at multiple levels who can do something to stop the tidal wave of evictions about to hit the city... about to hit every city.  Not seeing much action.  

Update: Like we said, could have done this the whole time.  

In an extraordinary move, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is moving to temporarily halt most evictions for Americans struggling to pay their rent due to the pandemic, in a step that’s broader than eviction protections already in place.

Many others could have taken action in various other ways.  But they all waited. Just to see how much pain they could inflict on people.  Well we are starting to find out. 

Large crowds to gather indoors, perhaps

The state has approved a plan for having fans cram into the Superdome to watch the second Saints home game.  They haven't said how many yet. Assume it will be in the thousands. But until they say exactly, it's hard to get a feel for how plausible the logistics of all of this might even be. 

All publicly accessible venues at the Superdome, including the parking garages, Champions Square, the Saints' team shop and the Saints Hall of Fame will be closed to the general public during games that are off-limits to fans. It is not yet known what the policy for the team shop and the Hall of Fame will be, but Champions Square, according to Tuesday's email, will be closed on gamedays. 

If the city signs off on the plan and fans are allowed, the Saints said in the email that they want all season ticket holders "to have equitable access to attend games" and that family members and friends can still attend games together if the tickets are on the same account. 

The number of tickets on an account will be seated together and will be socially distanced away from other groups, the email said.

Okay but in order to get into the building, you have to stand in a long line, get patted down by security, and then squeeze through the corridors and concession/rest room lines.  And, of course, once seated, we assume everyone will be planning to.. you know.. cheer the home team on.  That can be a pretty good way to spread the virus, or so we are told. 

Whatever the plan, it's going to be an awkward sell getting people to stay home from second lines or neighborhood bars when we're allowing indoor football program activities to proceed.  The mayor hasn't made a decision yet. Obviously there are important matters to consider such as the public health implications of setting this precedent too early how much money we can wring out of the deal. 

But, Cantrell suggested approval of the plan would likely hinge on whether the state was willing to give New Orleans more of the federal money set aside for local governments dealing with the COVID pandemic. Cantrell and other city officials have been beating the drum recently about the fact that of $88 million in requests for pandemic-related reimbursements, only about $43 million in expenses have been covered.

"The city of New Orleans needs her fair share of resources that are aligned with the state CARES Act that the state has received and the city of New Orleans," Cantrell said, adding that hosting the Saints would require more manpower and resources from the city.

Update: According to this, the plan is to open at 25% capacity which is something like 20,000 maybe. Sounds difficult.  It also says the mayor is "not even thinking about September 27." So this is probably not ready to happen yet. 

Go off, Queen

And with that, Julie Lea just entered the grifter hall of fame. 

The application encourages potential members to invest in the possible Nyx 2021 parade as a way of boosting the local economy.

“Paying your membership dues is another way you are supporting small businesses in our city, especially now,” the application reads. “And the best way to make sure that we still have a successful Mardi Gras krewe in the future, even if the city or state decides that that future is delayed until 2022.”

What can one do but just wonder in awe at that. 

All in this together

Not being an especially sharp science talking guy, I can't say I've tested this hypothesis that the virus is unable to cross Parish lines without special permission. But I have to say it does not sound convincing. 

Backed by local business organizations, the Jefferson Parish Council is expected Tuesday to ask Gov. John Bel Edwards to loosen coronavirus restrictions by region or parish, saying Jefferson should be allowed to move forward if it meets the criteria and not be held back simply because other areas do not.

The Council resolution, crafted by District 2 Councilman Deano Bonano, argues that many businesses are on "the brink of bankruptcy" and that the parish's hospital capacity and infection rate are sufficient to move "forward into Phase 3 of the recovery while maintaining all of the required safety protocols."

Oh wait a minute. I did not realize it might be different if we tell the virus that the businesses are going bankrupt.  Maybe that will keep it out. Anyway, Jefferson Parish doesn't even meet the Phase 3 criteria now so it's hard to know what the rush is. 

Jefferson Parish has recorded 16,461 known coronavirus cases since the disease arrived in March, more than any other parish in Louisiana. And while daily case counts have fallen sharply from the earliest days of the pandemic, according to data from the state Department of Health both Jefferson and the broader New Orleans region still have a high enough count of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people — known as the infection rate — to mandate Phase 2 restrictions.

Probably they just want to yell about it.  And, hey, who can blame them for that?  Living like this really does suck.  I also miss being able to just hang out somewhere. I don't even need the bars to open if I could go to the store or the coffee shop and just be in public feeling comfortable for a few minutes.  Last night there was a three alarm fire down the street from our house.  It was almost a comfort to stand outside and talk with a group of concerned neighbors gathering to watch. Then we remembered we had to put on our masks or keep back. 

This is miserable. Nobody wants to be living this life right now but we understand that we have to. It would certainly have helped matters if Congress had acted to ensure our lives were a little less precarious while we were making these sacrifices for one another. But they didn't. And now we're all at the mercy of the local tin-pot sociopaths ready for us to sacrifice more on their behalf. 

On Monday, (JP District 2 Councilman Deano) Bonano argued that hospital bed and protective equipment shortages that drove the stay-at-home order this spring are no longer present in Jefferson Parish, and that he doesn't believe the parish even had a second spike in coronavirus cases.

“Jefferson Parish’s numbers have remained well below what would be close to taxing our medical system and running out of space,” he said.

The reason to impose restrictions is is to stop the spread of the virus. It is not simply to make sure there are enough hospital beds for people who get it.  How dismal is that?  Bonano sound like he is fine to let God sort em out as long as there is enough room for the sorting. There's a better way to do this and it starts with congressional action and... well... we're waiting. 

But in the meantime, let's not be stupid. Please.

Just blew right through

Laura is already out of the headlines most everywhere but Louisiana.  Trump came down and signed some autographs or something and now they're all on to other things. 

Here are some numbers.  Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to be without water or power for a month at least. Tens of thousands of evacuees are staying in hotels all over Louisiana and Texas. Remember that evacuees in similar circumstances after Katrina had to fight more than once to keep their hotel vouchers before being kicked out with no place to go.  This is going to be a long tough road ahead for many people. 

A massive chlorine gas fire that erupted near Lake Charles has yet to be fully measured. Information about possible environmental damage from similar chemical infrastructure in the area is slow to come in.

The lack of urgency around monitoring is problematic, said Kimberly Terrell, Tulane Environmental Law Clinic's director of community outreach, because industrial facilities hit by Laura's winds could be leaking or emitting more air pollution than normal. 

"Monitoring air pollution is more important than ever," she said. "You would hope that the state would mobilize every resource available to provide information about what’s in the air in this region."

Indeed, since Thursday, more than 50 pollution events linked to Laura in Louisiana have been reported to the U.S. Coast Guard's National Response Center, including the possible release of toxic vinyl chloride and dichloroethane from the Westlake Chemicals facility, just across Contraband Bayou from the BioLab facility, and the release of an unknown quantity of natural gas from a storage tank at the Cameron LNG Inc. facility in Cameron Parish.

Confidence in EPA to discharge its duty under Trump is at an all time low. It will make it all the more difficult to assess the harm done by Laura. 

That is also true in general as attention moves quickly away.  Only a few years ago an event like Laura might be the biggest ongoing news story of the year.  In terms of the current national news cycle, it's just another catastrophe to throw on the pile. 

That doesn't make it any less devastating for the people who lived in its path.  If you are looking for a way to help, the City of New Orleans is compiling a list of ways you can do that here.